Secession: Has Its Time Come?

Tell me you haven’t been thinking about it.

Secession.

I.e. a “Blue” withdrawal from the paradoxically named “United” States.

[sorry Barack, your farewell speech was laudable, but as your mom said, Reality has a Way of Catching Up with You.]

I realize there are many practical obstacles to this split, of which the two biggest are:

(A) Geographic.  North Dakota, Montana, and a finger of Idaho break up a Blue Northern Arc extending from Virginia to California. Boundaries could be especially problematic there. If the other side started building walls, access between regions might be managed through Canada.

(B) Asymmetry of Resources & Money:

  • The non-Blue portion of What Was the United States (WUSS) has most of the physical resources: oil, coal, natural gas, solar, and land-based wind energy, and most important—if push came to shove—most of the armaments, from handguns to ICBMs.
  • The Blue Arc has most of the financial wealth, intellectual property, and potential for innovation.  You can see where the above-mentioned asymmetry would interact with this one. But, with enough tribute paid to the non-Blue states—continuing an existing de facto practice—the Blue Arc could minimize the use of force. The Blue Arc, if it joined NATO, would shine among the other NATO countries, in actually paying its way.

Think I’m joking? I’m not sure. I actually don’t believe Secession’s time has come. Yet. But it is time to start thinking about it so that future generations might not have to endure the charade of creating a More Perfect Union from the schizophrenic nation that exists now.

Forget the So-Called Warming “Pause”

If you are like me, recently you were willing to be persuaded that there was a 5-year “Pause” in Global Warming early in this century.  Not that the world was not getting hotter, but that the rate of getting hotter (the 2nd derivative)  had dropped.

T’aint so. Science (for what it’s worth these days) says so. I got this out of The Guardian, so it might have missed the mainstream U.S. media.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jan/04/new-study-confirms-noaa-finding-of-faster-global-warming

Didn’t the “pause” seem plausible? Thank the fossil fuel industry for that major disinformation campaign (a “hoax” in right wing parlance)—and I fell for it. Now I know better. Satan was subtle, and so are those folks.

Good News, Good News, and Unsurprising Bad News on the Environment: Tigers, Amur Leopards Get a Break, Not So Elephants

For those of us depressed by the continuing hammer blows delivered to the environment by humans, there are a few bright spots. A couple below, although one can’t sugarcoat them.

Bengal Tiger Resurgence

I recently heard that the population of Bengal Tigers is on the upswing in India (they have been increasing in Nepal too). I couldn’t find that recent story with a Web search, but here’s a report from January 2015, with numbers cited by India’s Environment Minister: Bengal Tiger Numbers Up

Assuming we can trust NDTV and India’s environment minister, these are promising numbers—an increase of 58% in seven years. 

Unfortunately, there’s a downside to these stats: the populations are scattered, meaning genetic diversity is still low, and the total number of the big cats, unsurprisingly, is 1/50th of what it was circa 1900 (then 100,000).  At the same time, India’s human population has gone up by a factor of 4.

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World Order 2.0 and National Debt

Richard Haass Stumps for a Reset of World Order, Targets National Debt

Centrist Big Thinker and President of the Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass has a new book out, The World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy  and the Crisis of the Old Order. As I gleaned from an interview on NPR’s Morning Edition today, and from the summary offered on Amazon, he’s looking for a reset (my word) of our foreign policy that recognizes our limitations but still projects our strength—reflecting “the reality that power is widely distributed and that borders count for less.”

In case you were wondering, Haass was pretty satisfied with the world order from the Cold War up through September 11, 2001. It may have been a tense world order, but at least it was orderly. Sort of.

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Crowd Wisdom, Fake News, Information Disparity, and Antarctic Ice Shelves. What’s the connection?

Are Crowds Looking Better These Days?

Facebook is reported to be using crowdsourcing to keep Fake News in check. See https://headleaks.com/2016/12/facebook-tries-crowdsourcing-fact-checkers-to-fight-fake-news/

Trust in numbers. That’s what democracy is all about, right? In a representative democracy, crowds pick their representatives by majority rule. (I’m talking about the principle, not a debacle like the 2016 U.S. Presidential election.) Wisdom flows from the crowd. . . all of us persuaded of crowd wisdom are prepared to hand over most decisions to the crowd. Thus the popularity of ballot initiatives, such as the ones to legalize marijuana in several states in the 2016 election—let the voters decide, directly. Real democracy. Obtains the wisest results. If two heads are better than one, a million heads are better than. . . yours.

Or are they? There are a couple of things that call that into question crowd wisdom when applied to our real, complex, modern world.

Continue reading “Crowd Wisdom, Fake News, Information Disparity, and Antarctic Ice Shelves. What’s the connection?”