The gift that keeps on giving: Trump presidency
Vladimir Putin must be rubbing his hands with glee* over any and all of the events precipitated by, or connected with, the United States, since January 2017.
For starters, his man in the White House continues to keep the U.S. domestic political scene in turmoil, with each day’s opening tweets sowing discord and confusion among lawmakers, media, foreign governments, entertainers, and the public. Trump has done much to thwart the effort by intelligence services and the Department of Justice to investigate and counter Russian influence on our elections, by portraying it as a Deep State plot to undermine his presidency.
For seconds, Trump has refused to implement the strict sanctions on Russia passed by Congress in summer 2017. (Regardless, he continues to claim that “no one has been tougher on Russia than I have.”)
For thirds, Trump continues to dismay foreign allies on four fronts:
(1) pulling out of the Paris Climate Accords;
(2) pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal;
(3) imposing trade sanctions such as tariffs on aluminum and steel imported from Canada, Mexico, and Europe as well as such traditional trade foes as China.
(4) leaving it to other nations to deal with massive refugee crises in the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central America, while the Trump administration strengthens barriers against refugees from anywhere trying to find asylum in the U.S.
For fourths, the rejection of the Iran nuclear deal has further hardened Iranian hostility toward the U.S., and driven Iran closer to Russia. It’s Russia who has been supplying Iran with uranium for its nuclear power reactors, and it’s Russia who has, along with Iran, been assisting the Assad regime in Syria. Russia has been giving aid and comfort to Iran, whose long memory of injuries at the hands of the United States has been further poisoned by the Trump administration.
For fifths, Trump’s contribution to the prospect of North Korea cutting back on its nuclear weapons arsenal, has, paradoxically,** cast the American president as a peacemaker. To the extent that improves Trump’s chances for re-election in 2020, and improves Republican chances to keep a majority in the 2018 Congressional elections, it’s a boon that Putin may not have dreamed of. In any case, Trump’s presidency will survive until 2020, since even if a Democrat-majority House were to impeach him, the 2/3rds requirement to convict him in the Senate is out of reach.
What counts more – North Korea, or Iran?
From the Russian standpoint, anything that lessens North Korea’s nuclear threat is a plus in improving international stability. On the other hand, should the de-nuclearization talks fail, Russia’s position on the sidelines ensures its immunity to a direct threat from North Korea. While making America look a little dumb.
Additionally, if North Korea’s economy improves, it will widen the market for Russian oil. Russia, and Putin, have nothing to lose and everything to gain by a Trump success in negotiations with the Koreas, and little to lose if it fails.
Iran is key to expansion of Russian influence in the Middle East. If geography matters, no country is more central to the Muslim world. Iran shares borders with Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey, and faces Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar across the Gulf of Oman. It has the largest population in the region with the exception of Turkey’s (approx. 80 million vs Turkey’s 82 million). Indeed, its population is more than half the size of Russia’s (144 million).
In the long run, the widened chasm between the U.S. and Iran, and the strengthening of ties between Russia and Iran, will have greater consequences for global peace and the global economy than any deal Trump and Pompeo might hammer out with Kim Jong-Un.
The influence of Russia in the Middle East is highlighted in an opinion piece in the May 3rd New York Times by Joost Hilterman, entitled, “Who Can Prevent a War between Israel and Iran? Russia” Hiltermann on Israel, Iran, and Syria
At the end of the day, Vladimir Putin might be more deserving of a Nobel Peace Prize than Donald Trump. Imagine them, irony piled upon irony, sharing it! That would be proof that this world really IS going to the dogs! (Sorry, dogs, I know very well you’re more nobel noble than those two. It’s just an outworn figure of speech.)
[Addendum (June 8 2018) to original post: Russia back into
G-7?
Trump is now pushing for Russia to be reinstated to the G-7. They were ousted in 2014 for the annexation of the Crimea, for which they have never given a formal explanation. In his speech Trump declares he has “been Russia’s worst nightmare.” ]
See Trump calls for reinstatement of Russia to the G-7
=============== footnotes follow ================
* Actually, Putin does not strike me as one who feels a whole lot of glee—something of a cold fish. But who knows? the sound of uproarious laughter may be emanating from his inner sanctum, cheering up those Russians who might lose their heads in a Putin bad mood.
** Trump boosters will argue that Trump’s putative peacemaking role is not paradoxical at all—it flows naturally from the notion of peace through strength. This has a plausible ring, were it not counterpoised against Trump’s erratic, impulsive nature, where peace through strength may switch on a dime to war through strength.